I do think that TV and internet are merging, but it’s the choice and on-demand model of the internet that’s setting the new rules. And those rules don’t include clear ways for advertisers to maximize their dollar. At least not yet. :-)

Anyway, to make a prediction, I don’t see the death of broadcast TV happening for a very very long time, if at all. The thing is, we’ve got a brilliant system of distributing content like live events, first run shows, news, etc, and the TV does it perfectly. Also, the internet is creeping onto broadcast TV just as fast as TV is coming to the internet. TNT latin america already has a system where you can go online to vote for what movie you want to see that night. News programs are using online polls & email, and CNN has a whole show dedicated to playing youtube videos.

TV does live/first run media perfectly, and without the network issues you encounter when millions of people try to download the same thing at once. We will always need big daddy networks to manage major events like the super bowl, (and sadly, they will be tightly clutching the DRM reigns). Even underdeveloped countries can easily get around their lack of broadcast infrastructure with a satellite dish (which is notoriously a one-way street in terms of data transfer).

My ultimate prediction is that TV will remain our source for the type of media that TV does best, and our computers will replace our DVD collections just as iPods have replaced our CD collections. I think it would be pretty easy to figure the numbers on how much viewership is re-run/niche market viewership and compare that with the first-run/live event market and draw the line there and say “ok, this is where we’re going to reach some kind of equilibrium with broadcast vs. online content. The timeframe for reaching that equilibriu is anyone’s guess. We just know it’s going to happen eventually.